Bard, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

416
FXUS65 KPSR 081743
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1043 AM MST Tue Apr 8 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot temperatures will build over the region over the
next few days with highs reaching well into the nineties by
Wednesday and right around 100 degrees for Thursday and Friday, or
15 degrees above normal. This strong high pressure will also
continue to bring mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Eventually, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to approach
the region over the weekend leading to a cooling trend into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The high pressure ridge has finally pushed into the entire region
with yesterday`s high temperatures reaching a few degrees above
normal in Phoenix to around 5 degrees above normal across the
western deserts. H5 heights have already increased to near 580dm
with additional building heights expected into Thursday.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the rest of the
workweek with highs likely topping 90 degrees across most of the
lower deserts today and into at least the mid 90s on Wednesday. As
H5 heights peak at around 588-589dm (around climatological record
for the period) on Thursday into Friday, we are expecting to see
our hottest temperatures so far this year with a good portion of
the lower deserts reaching and likely exceeding 100 degrees. The
typical warmest lower desert areas may even top out between
102-104 degrees on Friday, which now looks to be the peak of the
heat. Daily records are also likely to be tied or even broken,
most likely occurring on Thursday and Friday (see CLIMATE section
below). Clear to mostly clear skies are expected through Thursday
before we are likely to see some thin high cirrus spread into the
region from the southwest on Friday. At this time, it is doubtful
these higher clouds will inhibit heating on Friday or Saturday.

The synoptic pattern will begin to shift Friday into Saturday as a
broad area of troughing shifts southeastward off the Pacific into
the Pacific Northwest and California. This incoming trough should
bring some slight cooling on Saturday, but highs are still likely
to top out near 100 degrees. We are also expecting an increase in
winds on Saturday with afternoon gusts between 20-30 mph, which
could result in elevated fire weather conditions. The trough
should eventually shift into our region at some point Sunday into
Monday, but no appreciable increase in moisture is expected with
this system. The main change will be noticeably cooler
temperatures by Sunday with highs back to around 90 degrees and
possibly down into the upper 80s for next Monday. This synoptic
pattern may continue into the middle of next week with a second
dry weather system potentially moving through our region.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1743Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected during the forecast
period. Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends with speeds
generally aob 10 kts. Passing high clouds will give way to mostly
clear skies by tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region into the
latter half of the week leading to increasing temperatures and
continued dry conditions. Afternoon high temperatures will warm
well into the 90s starting Wednesday before peaking on Thursday
and Friday at around 15 degrees above normal. MinRHs will be less
than 10% each day over the next several days with poor overnight
recoveries at around 15-30%. Winds will overall be light and tend
to follow their typical diurnal tendencies through Thursday
before winds increase into the weekend. Elevated fire weather
conditions are likely to occur over the coming weekend as RHs stay
low and winds increase with afternoon gusts between 20-30 mph
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this week:

Date       Phoenix        Yuma        El Centro
----       -------        ----        ---------

Apr  9   102 in 1989   102 in 1989   104 in 1989
Apr 10   100 in 2018   100 in 1960    98 in 2018
Apr 11    99 in 2023   101 in 1936   100 in 2018
Apr 12    99 in 1936   102 in 1962   103 in 1940

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith/RW
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Kuhlman